Partitioning the Uncertainty of Ensemble Projections of Global Glacier Mass Change, Marzeion, B., Hock, R., Anderson, B., Bliss, A., Champollion, N., Fujita, K., Huss, M., Immerzeel, W. W., Kraaijenbrink, P., Malles, J. H., Maussion, F., Radic, V., Rounce, D. R., Sakai, A., Shannon, S., van de Wal, R., and Zekollari, H.: Partitioning the Uncertainty of Ensemble Projections of Global Glacier Mass Change, Earths Future, 8, 25, 10.1029/2019ef001470, 2020
This paper published by the glacierMIP community showed that the CO2 emission scenario is the largest source of uncertainty and grows throughout the 21st century. The relative importance of glacier model uncertainty decreases over time, but it is the greatest source of uncertainty until the middle of this century. Uncertainty from natural variability is the smallest.
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